Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates, Signals Gradual Easing Ahead according to their November FED Minutes

The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% at its November 6-7, 2024 meeting, marking its second rate cut following September’s larger 50-basis-point reduction. This gradual easing of monetary policy comes as inflation continues its progress towards the Fed’s 2% target, though it remains somewhat elevated according to the FED Minutes.

Fed Minutes Reveal Economic Outlook

The Fed noted that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with recent data surprising to the upside. Consumer spending remains strong, supported by a robust labor market, rising real wages, and elevated household wealth. However, some participants cautioned that low- and moderate-income households are experiencing financial strains, with rising delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans serving as warning signs.

Labor market conditions have eased since earlier in the year but remain solid overall. The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, while wage growth has moderated with the wage premium for job switchers diminishing.

Impact on Housing Market

The rate cuts’ effect on the mortgage market has been complex and less direct than many anticipated. While the Fed’s easing policy generally supports lower borrowing costs, mortgage rates have actually increased since September’s initial rate cut. This disconnect occurs because:

• Mortgage rates respond more to long-term bond yields and market expectations than to the Fed’s short-term rate decisions
• Strong economic data and post-election market reactions have pushed yields higher
• The market had already priced in expected rate cuts, limiting their immediate impact

Real Estate Market Dynamics

The current rate environment continues to affect housing market activity in several ways:

• Existing home sales have fallen to their lowest level since October 2010, at 3.84 million units according to Freddie Mac
• The “rate lock-in effect” has intensified, with homeowners reluctant to sell properties purchased at lower rates
• New home sales have shown more resilience, running above pre-pandemic averages as builders offer incentives to attract buyers

Looking Ahead

The outlook for mortgage rates and housing remains nuanced. While the Fed’s gradual easing cycle should support lower rates over time, the path may not be straightforward. Experts anticipate:

• Mortgage rates will likely remain volatile but gradually decline throughout 2025
• Housing inventory may improve as lower rates eventually ease the lock-in effect
• Home prices are expected to continue rising, albeit at a slower pace

Implications for Homebuyers and Homeowners

For prospective homebuyers, the current environment presents both challenges and opportunities. While rates remain elevated compared to recent years, waiting for “perfect” conditions could be counterproductive[6]. Current homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages may see some relief as their rates adjust downward, while those with fixed-rate mortgages might find refinancing opportunities as rates decline.

The housing market’s recovery will likely be gradual, with the Fed’s measured approach to monetary policy supporting a stable transition toward more normalized conditions. Buyers and sellers alike should focus on their individual circumstances and long-term goals rather than trying to time the market perfectly.